尹朋;谭德荣;
1:山东理工大学交通与车辆工程学院
摘要：本文利用三次样条数函数和相应的样条函数光滑处理方法,结合我国13个年度的全国交通事故历史统计数据,对交通事故的三项主要统计指标进行拟合并建模,从而对道路交通事故进行预测。通过对预测结果的误差分析可知,该方法对交通事故三项主要指标的预测是有效的,为交通事故部门的未来事故预测提供了一种新的思路和方法。
关键词： 交通事故;;预测;;三次样条;;延拓
Abstract: Road accidents forecast is a
crucial problem in traffic safety control.In order to successfully complete the
traffic safety control work,we must look for a punctuate and accurate road
accident forecast method.With the priority of high-precision of cubic spline
curve fitting function combined with relevant spline smoothing method,by
investigation of traffic safety condition in china,a prediction systerm is set
up.We put the three main statistical indicators into the model to predict traffic
accidents in a short period.From the results of the analysis of the error we
can see that,the forecast model based on cubic spline curve fitting function is
effective for traffic accidents and it also provide a new way of thinking and
method on traffic accidents forecast.
Keywords:Traffic-Accidents;Forecast;Cubic Spline;Curve
Extension
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