于涛

（中国人民解放军91315部队，辽宁 大连 116041）

    摘要：利用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型对柴油机润滑油中的金属元素进行趋势预测，首先利用元素历史数据建立动态微分方程，然后基于该微分方程预测元素的变化趋势，为润滑油性能分析和故障定位提供参考。通过对某型柴油机润滑油的监测实例，结果表明该预测方法具有数据量小、计算简单、预测准确的特点。

    关键词：GM(1,1)模型；柴油机；润滑油；金属含量；趋势预测

Abstract: This paper used the gray system GM (1,1) model to predict the change trend of metal elements in diesel engine lubricating oils. Firstly, the dynamic differential equation for elements is established based on their historical data. Then according to the differential equation, the change trends of elements can be predicted as an important reference for analysis and fault location of lubricating oil. The results from the monitoring the lubricating oil of a diesel engine show that the prediction method has the characteristics including a small amount of data, simple calculation and precise prediction.

Key words: GM (1,1) Model; Diesel Engine; Lubricant Oil; Metal Content；Performance Prediction